The Humiliating Debut of Russia’s Humanoid Robot – Exposing the Technological Gap in the Global Robot Market
Editor
As of November 14, 2025, the humanoid robot market is receiving more attention than ever. However, the recent debut of Russian startup AIDOL starkly highlighted the technical challenges and real-world limitations of this market. The scene of AIDOL’s robot confidently entering to the Rocky theme song, only to crash to the floor within seconds, is seen as a symbolic revelation of the competitive dynamics and technological gap in the current global robot industry.
by NAVER News
Personally, I believe this incident is a crucial example that accurately reflects the current state of humanoid robot technology. While many online mocked it as the “world’s first drunk robot,” such failures actually demonstrate the technical complexity of this field. The New York Times quipped that it fell faster than Ivan Drago in Rocky IV, but this seems to highlight the challenges faced not only by Russian robotics but by the entire industry.
The global humanoid robot market is reportedly now over $1.6 billion, excluding the massive funds invested in Tesla’s Optimus project. Although the exact amount Tesla is investing in Optimus has not been disclosed, considering Elon Musk’s mention of this project as one of Tesla’s future growth drivers, it is presumed to be substantial.
What’s truly interesting is AIDOL’s response. They attributed the cause of the incident to external variables like lighting conditions, explaining that “the robot is still in the learning phase, and this mistake will serve as an important experience for future improvements.” This response seems to reflect the current stage of development in humanoid robot technology. Most humanoid robots still encounter unexpected issues when taken out of laboratory environments.
The Current State of the Global Humanoid Robot Market
To properly understand AIDOL’s failure, one must examine the competitive landscape of the current global humanoid robot market. Leading companies in this market include Tesla and Boston Dynamics from the U.S., Honda and SoftBank from Japan, and several startups from China, all fiercely competing. Each has significantly different approaches and technological levels, illustrating the complexity of this market.
Tesla’s Optimus has shown steady progress since its first unveiling in 2022. Recent demonstrations have shown it performing tasks like climbing stairs, sorting objects, and even doing yoga poses. Tesla is considered closest to commercialization by combining mass production techniques and AI technology accumulated from its automotive manufacturing. Elon Musk has even estimated the potential market value of Optimus at $25 trillion.
In contrast, Boston Dynamics’ Atlas boasts the highest level of technical completion. It showcases impressive movements like backflips, parkour, and navigating complex terrains. However, it focuses more on research and development rather than commercialization, making its actual market release uncertain. Boston Dynamics is currently part of the Hyundai Motor Group, demonstrating the investment intent of Korean companies in robotics technology.
In Japan, Honda’s ASIMO project was discontinued in 2018, but SoftBank’s Pepper remains strong in the service robot sector. However, its presence in the humanoid robot field has relatively diminished. In China, several startups like UBTECH Robotics and CloudMinds are aggressively entering the market, showing rapid growth with strong government support.
In this context, it’s clear how significant the challenges are for new entrants like Russia’s AIDOL. Humanoid robot technology is an extremely complex field that requires the integration of cutting-edge technologies from various domains, including mechanical engineering, electronics, computer science, and artificial intelligence. Especially, dynamic balance control, real-time environmental perception, and natural walking remain unsolved challenges for many companies.
Technical Challenges and the Reality of Commercialization
Photo by DALL-E 3 on OpenAI DALL-E
Analyzing AIDOL’s robot fall from a technical perspective reveals the fundamental issues faced by humanoid robots. Human walking is actually the result of a very complex control system. We unconsciously process a vast amount of sensor information to maintain balance, but for robots, this is an extremely difficult task.
Currently, most humanoid robots use gyroscopes, accelerometers, and force/torque sensors to control balance. However, their ability to respond to unexpected external environmental changes—such as lighting changes, floor material variations, and noise—is still limited. AIDOL’s mention of lighting conditions as the cause of the incident can be understood in this context.
In fact, this issue is not unique to AIDOL. Tesla’s Optimus also showed instability and fell several times during early demonstrations. Even Boston Dynamics’ Atlas experienced countless failures during its development process. Their development videos often show robots falling, colliding, and malfunctioning. However, these companies have gradually resolved issues through years of research and development and substantial investment.
Personally, I think AIDOL’s recent failure highlights the realistic difficulties of entering the humanoid robot market. This field cannot be resolved by technical prowess alone. Continuous investment, repeated experimentation, and learning from failures are essential. This is precisely why Tesla has invested massive funds over several years in developing Optimus and why Boston Dynamics has continued its research for over 20 years.
The current prices of humanoid robots closest to commercialization reveal the market’s reality. Tesla announced a target price of under $20,000 for Optimus, but this is a story for when mass production becomes feasible. Most humanoid robots currently on the market are priced in the hundreds of thousands to over a million dollars. It’s known that Honda invested billions of dollars in developing ASIMO.
This high-cost structure is a significant obstacle to the commercialization of humanoid robots. In the industrial robot market, the return on investment (ROI) must be clear for adoption, but considering the current performance and price of humanoid robots, it’s challenging to secure economic feasibility. In most tasks, dedicated robots or existing industrial robots are more efficient and economical.
Nevertheless, the market outlook is very bright. Global market research institutions predict that the humanoid robot market will grow at an average annual rate of over 30% by 2030. Particularly, the demand for labor replacement in aging societies, rising labor costs, and hazardous work environments are analyzed as major growth drivers. In Korea, where aging is progressing at the fastest rate globally, the demand for humanoid robots in the care service sector is expected to be particularly high.
Ultimately, AIDOL’s failure can be seen as an example of how high the entry barriers are in this market. However, it also means that since the market is still in its early stages, there is still potential for latecomers to overturn the situation through technological innovation. The key will be the ability to build an ecosystem that comprehensively encompasses AI, software, and manufacturing technology, beyond mere hardware development.
The humanoid robot market is expected to see even fiercer competition in the future. Existing leading companies are entering the final stages of commercialization, and new entrants continue to emerge. For new companies like AIDOL to succeed, they will need not only technical completion but also a clear target market, business model, and continuous investment acquisition. Whether this failure can truly become an “important experience” depends on their future response.
This article was written after reading a news article, adding personal opinions and analysis.
Disclaimer: This blog is not a news media outlet, and the content written reflects the author’s personal views. The responsibility for investment decisions lies with the investor, and no responsibility is taken for investment losses based on the content of this article.
