Performance Analysis of Humanoid Robot ETFs Over 5 Months – The Gap Between Expectations and Reality
Editor
Reading the Chosun Biz article left me with mixed feelings. Many humanoid robot-themed ETFs were launched in the first half of this year, but after five months, their performance isn’t as dazzling as expected. Given the high expectations for the robot industry, it seems necessary to take a more sober view of the market by looking at the realistic outcomes.
According to the article, five humanoid robot-related ETFs were launched domestically in the first half of 2025. Notable examples include KODEX Humanoid Robot Active, TIGER Global Humanoid Robot SOLACTIVE, and ARIRANG Humanoid Robot. These ETFs recorded an average return of approximately -2.3% over five months. Considering that the KOSPI was at -1.8% during the same period, they failed to demonstrate the premium of thematic investment.
Personally, I’m not too surprised by these results. The theme of humanoid robots still heavily relies on expectations for future technology. Although Tesla’s Optimus robot showcased impressive results in a demonstration at the end of 2024, it still requires time before commercialization. Elon Musk announced plans to start limited production by the end of 2025, but given Tesla’s history of delays, it seems prudent to wait and see.
Interestingly, there is a significant performance variance among the ETFs. The article notes that the best-performing ETF rose by 4.7%, while the most underperforming ETF fell by -8.2%. This likely reflects the differences in the portfolios each ETF has constructed. Some ETFs may have increased the proportion of large tech stocks like Tesla or Nvidia, while others may have focused more on pure robot companies.
The Current State of the Global Humanoid Robot Market
As of November 2025, various companies are competing in the global humanoid robot market. In the U.S., Tesla (based in Austin, Texas) is receiving the most attention with its Optimus project, and Boston Dynamics (based in Waltham, Massachusetts) is recognized for its technology with the Atlas robot. In Japan, Honda (based in Tokyo) is noted for its ASIMO successor project, and SoftBank (also based in Tokyo) for its improved version of Pepper.
Chinese companies’ movements cannot be ignored either. Xiaomi (based in Beijing) announced a humanoid robot called CyberOne, and UBTech Robotics (based in Shenzhen) is challenging commercialization with its Walker series. Notably, UBTech is reportedly pursuing a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a corporate valuation of approximately $5 billion as of the end of 2024.
However, the stock prices or market values of these companies do not always align with actual technological advancements. In Tesla’s case, its stock price rose by 15% following an Optimus-related announcement in the first quarter of 2025, but it underwent a correction after the second-quarter earnings report revealed minimal revenue contribution from the robotics division. This exemplifies the reality that rapid commercialization, as investors hoped, is not easy.
The domestic situation also warrants attention. In Korea, Hyundai Motor Group’s acquisition of Boston Dynamics marks a full-fledged entry into the humanoid robot field, but it seems it will take time to achieve visible results. Hyundai Robotics announced an investment of about 30 billion won in R&D as of the first half of 2025, but actual product launches are expected after 2026.
In terms of market size, the global humanoid robot market is projected to grow from approximately $1.8 billion in 2024 to $17.4 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 45%, indicating a high-growth market. However, experts generally agree that such rosy forecasts are unlikely to be realized in the short term due to numerous challenges, including technical limitations, manufacturing costs, and safety issues.
The Pitfalls and Opportunities of ETF Investment
The lackluster performance of humanoid robot ETFs highlights the challenges of thematic investing. As mentioned in the article, most ETFs are composed of large tech stocks with related technologies rather than pure robot companies. For instance, KODEX Humanoid Robot Active includes Nvidia (based in Santa Clara, California) at about 8.5%, Tesla at 7.2%, and Microsoft (based in Redmond, Washington) at 6.8%.
The issue is that the stock prices of these large tech companies are more influenced by factors other than the humanoid robot business. For Nvidia, it’s the demand changes for AI chips; for Tesla, it’s electric vehicle sales; and for Microsoft, it’s the performance of its cloud business. As a result, investing in the humanoid robot theme might yield results not significantly different from a traditional tech stock portfolio.
However, this doesn’t mean investing in this field is meaningless. In the long term, the growth potential of the humanoid robot market is undeniable. It just requires more careful consideration of the timing and method of investment. It’s crucial to closely analyze the technological progress of individual companies, actual commercialization schedules, and their competitive advantages.
Recently, some experts suggest that special-purpose robots might be commercialized before humanoid robots. Robots specialized in specific fields, like Amazon’s (based in Seattle, Washington) warehouse robots or Google’s (based in Mountain View, California) autonomous vehicle technology, could penetrate the market more quickly. Indeed, Amazon announced that it was operating over 520,000 robots in its global logistics centers as of 2024.
Domestic investors should also consider the risks of exchange rate fluctuations. Most humanoid robot ETFs are composed of foreign company stocks, so during periods of a strong dollar, additional losses may occur. This concern materialized in the second half of 2025 when the won-dollar exchange rate rose to the 1,380 won range.
Nevertheless, there are positive signals. Recently, the Japanese government announced plans to expand tax benefits for companies adopting humanoid robots starting in the second half of 2025, and the European Union is reviewing plans to ease robot safety regulations. Such policy support could accelerate market growth.
Ultimately, investing in humanoid robot ETFs should be approached from a long-term perspective. Instead of expecting significant short-term gains, it seems wise to gradually increase positions while observing how this industry develops over the next 5-10 years. It seems premature to make hasty judgments based solely on the five-month performance mentioned in the article. However, before investing, it’s essential to thoroughly examine the constituent stocks and management strategies of each ETF and carefully assess whether they align with your investment goals and risk tolerance.
This article was written after reading the Chosun Biz article on the performance of humanoid robot ETFs launched in rapid succession, with added personal opinions and analysis.
Disclaimer: This blog is not a news outlet, and the content reflects the author’s personal views. The responsibility for investment decisions lies with the investor, and no liability is assumed for investment losses based on the content of this article.
