Trump’s Energy Policy Creates Winners and Losers – Nuclear Power Smiles While Solar Power Cries

Watching Doosan Enerbility and Hanwha Solutions announce their Q3 earnings side by side yesterday really drove home just how much policy can determine a company’s fate. Both are in the renewable energy sector, yet nuclear power hit the jackpot while solar power got the short end of the stick.

Personally, I didn’t expect the Trump 2.0 administration’s energy policy changes to manifest this quickly and this dramatically. But when you look at the numbers, it’s truly shocking.

Hanwha Solutions’ Painful Reality

Let’s start with Hanwha Solutions. Q3 revenue increased 7.9% quarter-over-quarter to 3.364 trillion won, but operating profit swung from a 102.1 billion won profit to a 7.4 billion won loss. You might not grasp how significant this change is, but it means nearly 110 billion won in profitability deterioration happened in just one quarter.

The problem was the U.S. strengthening regulations on Chinese supply chains. Originally, we expected Korean companies to benefit when the U.S. prevented tax credits for using Chinese solar materials or capital. But reality was the complete opposite.

As the U.S. tightened customs regulations, Hanwha Solutions’ U.S. plant utilization rates dropped, naturally reducing the Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit (AMPC) amounts as well. Q3 AMPC was only 68.2 billion won, and the annual guidance was drastically revised down from the original 700 billion won to the late 400 billion won range. Sales volume also dropped from 7.5GW to 6GW.

This is a case where expected benefits from policy changes actually became poison. It also shows how complex and vulnerable global supply chains can be.

Doosan Enerbility’s Winning Streak

Doosan Enerbility, on the other hand, painted a completely different picture. It recorded Q3 revenue of 3.880 trillion won (up 14.3% year-over-year) and operating profit of 137 billion won (up 19.4%). Even more surprising was the upward revision of annual order guidance from 10.7 trillion won to 13-14 trillion won.

This isn’t just performance improvement—it signifies structural change. The key is Trump’s executive order announced last May, which includes plans to build 10 new large-scale nuclear plants by 2030 and invest $80 billion (116 trillion won) in Westinghouse AP1000 reactors.

What’s particularly impressive is that Doosan Enerbility exported gas turbines to the U.S.—the birthplace of gas turbine technology—for the first time. They’re scheduled to supply two units by the end of next year, which should be seen as recognition of their technological capabilities.

Beneficiary of the Nuclear Renaissance

Actually, the entire nuclear industry’s atmosphere has completely changed over the past few years. The explosive growth in AI data center power demand, carbon neutrality goals, and energy security issues have converged to create a reassessment of nuclear power.

Big tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are also moving to secure nuclear power, and Europe has included nuclear power in its green taxonomy. With this global trend combined with America’s aggressive nuclear expansion policy, it’s become perfect timing for nuclear companies like Doosan Enerbility.

The Double-Edged Nature of Policy Risk

What I realized from this case is that policy risk is truly a double-edged sword. Hanwha Solutions greatly benefited from the Biden administration’s IRA (Inflation Reduction Act), but under Trump 2.0, it’s actually being held back.

But thinking about it, this was somewhat predictable. Trump has consistently emphasized “America First” policies and maintained a hardline stance toward China. It’s just that the speed and intensity were faster than expected.

Personally, I’m curious how Hanwha Solutions will overcome this crisis. Is it realistically possible to completely transition the U.S. plant supply chain to exclude Chinese sources? How much cost increase can they bear?

From a Long-term Perspective

Long-term, I think both companies have opportunities. For Hanwha Solutions, the company expects customs issues to be resolved by year-end, and U.S. solar demand itself isn’t disappearing.

Doosan Enerbility seems likely to continue its boom for the time being. Nuclear power projects take over 10 years once construction begins, and order opportunities are increasing not just in the U.S. but also in European markets like Czech Republic and Poland.

However, both companies’ high dependence on U.S. policy remains a risk factor. If policies change again, we could see the opposite situation. Ultimately, technological capabilities and supply chain diversification seem to be key.

This case shows that the ability to read policy changes is becoming a core competency for corporate survival in the energy transition era.

This post was written after reading the article ‘Order Target Raised’ Doosan Enerbility vs ‘AMPC Lowered’ Hanwha Solutions… Contrasting Earnings Fortunes – Economy | Article – The Fact, with added personal opinions and analysis.

Disclaimer: This blog is not a news outlet, and the content represents the author’s personal views. Investment decisions are the responsibility of individual investors, and we accept no responsibility for investment losses based on the content of this post.