OpenAI’s Ambitious Goal – 200 Million Paid Subscribers by 2030 and the Challenge of Google’s Gemini 3
Editor
OpenAI’s ambitious plan has been unveiled. The goal is to increase the number of paid subscribers for ChatGPT to over six times the current number, reaching 220 million by 2030. With the current figure standing at 35 million paid subscribers, this is indeed a bold target. However, with Google’s recent announcement of Gemini 3, the dynamics of the AI market are once again in flux, raising questions about the feasibility of this goal.
According to a report by The Information, OpenAI expects its weekly active users (WAU) to reach 2.6 billion by 2030. Of these, approximately 8.5%, or 220 million, are projected to be paid subscribers. Considering the current paid subscription rate is about 5%, a significant increase in conversion rates is necessary. This means many more users would need to subscribe to the $20 monthly Plus plan or the $200 monthly Pro plan than currently do.
As stated by CEO Sam Altman earlier this month, OpenAI’s revenue is expected to exceed $20 billion this year and grow to hundreds of billions by 2030. This signifies an extraordinary growth rate. Given Microsoft’s $13 billion investment in OpenAI, if this growth continues, the return on investment could be substantial.
Particularly interesting is OpenAI’s development of new revenue streams. It is anticipated that new products, such as shopping integration features or ad-based services, could account for about 20% of total revenue. The recently introduced personalized shopping assistant feature in ChatGPT appears to be part of this strategy. It seems they are envisioning a model where AI assists with shopping, similar to Amazon’s Alexa or Google Assistant, earning commissions in the process.
Slowing Growth and Intensifying Competition
However, not all indicators are positive. The Information points out that the growth rate of ChatGPT’s WAU has become quite unstable recently. While there was a 42% increase from the previous month in January, it only grew by 13% in September. This could be a natural slowdown following initial explosive growth, but it may also be related to the pursuit by competitors.
In fact, the launch of Google’s Gemini 3 could pose a significant threat to OpenAI. Google already has billions of users across various platforms like Search, Android, and Chrome. If Gemini 3 performs similarly or better than ChatGPT, users may have less incentive to use a separate paid service. Especially since Google is likely to offer it for free, OpenAI could face challenges in terms of price competitiveness.
Meta is also approaching the market with an open-source strategy through its LLaMA model, and Amazon is targeting enterprise customers with Claude. While Microsoft has partnered with OpenAI, it is also developing its own AI models, which could make it a competitor in the long term. In this environment, maintaining a dominant position is becoming increasingly difficult for OpenAI.
The Chinese market is another variable. Local AI models like Baidu’s Ernie Bot and Alibaba’s Tongyi Qianwen are rapidly advancing, making it challenging for OpenAI to achieve significant success in China. To reach the 2.6 billion WAU target, substantial user acquisition in populous countries like China and India is necessary, which may present realistic challenges.
Diversification of Revenue Models and Future Outlook
Nonetheless, OpenAI’s strategy to diversify its revenue streams is noteworthy. While there may be limitations with subscription fees alone, expanding revenue sources through advertising, commerce, and enterprise services could increase the likelihood of achieving its goals. The personalized shopping assistant feature, in particular, seems like a very intriguing attempt. If it can learn users’ preferences and purchasing patterns to recommend optimal products and earn commissions, it could generate significant revenue.
The enterprise market cannot be ignored either. The number of users subscribing to the $200 monthly Pro plan is increasing, likely consisting of businesses or professionals. If OpenAI strengthens its enterprise solutions and offers customized services, it could launch higher-priced products. Many companies are looking to incorporate AI into their operations, suggesting that this market will continue to grow.
The API business is also a crucial revenue source. Many startups and companies are developing their own services using OpenAI’s API. Revenue from this area increases proportionally with usage, so as the overall AI market grows, OpenAI’s revenue could naturally increase. However, cloud providers like Google and Amazon offering similar services could intensify competition here as well.
Personally, I find OpenAI’s goal of 220 million paid subscribers somewhat optimistic. While the AI market continues to grow and ChatGPT has significant brand power, competition is becoming too fierce. If Google’s Gemini 3 performs exceptionally well, many users might not see the need to use a paid service.
Nevertheless, OpenAI undoubtedly maintains a leading position. It possesses significant competitive advantages in technological superiority, developer ecosystems, and corporate partnerships. If it successfully diversifies its revenue models and maintains differentiation through continuous technological innovation, it could achieve results close to its goals. However, rather than focusing on the specific number of 220 million, it might be more important to pay attention to the overall growth direction. The AI market is changing so rapidly that predicting the situation five years from now is challenging.
This article was written after reading a news article and adding personal opinions and analysis.
Disclaimer: This blog is not a news outlet, and the content reflects the author’s personal views. The responsibility for investment decisions lies with the investor, and no liability is accepted for investment losses based on this article.
