Acceleration of Quantum Computing Commercialization Race: A New Turning Point in the Technological Hegemony Competition of 2025
Editor
As of November 2025, the global quantum computing market stands at a crucial inflection point where technological maturity and commercial practicality intersect. According to the latest report by market research firm Gartner, the quantum computing market size is projected to grow from $1.9 billion in 2025 to $12.6 billion by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 46.1%. This rapid growth outlook suggests that quantum computing is beginning to be applied to solve real business problems beyond mere technological curiosity. Particularly in areas such as risk modeling in financial services, new drug development in the pharmaceutical industry, and logistics optimization, quantum computing demonstrates clear performance advantages over traditional computing, drawing increased interest from investors.
The current technological leadership in the quantum computing field is characterized by fierce competition between IBM, headquartered in Armonk, New York, and Google (Alphabet) in Mountain View, California. IBM showcased its technological superiority by achieving 1,121 qubits in its ‘Condor’ processor announced in October 2025. This represents a 12.1% improvement over the 1,000-qubit ‘Flamingo’ announced in 2024, achieving IBM’s goal of 1,100 qubits by the end of 2025 ahead of schedule. In contrast, Google is focusing on improving error rates rather than the number of qubits. Google’s latest ‘Willow’ chip, with a relatively modest 70 qubits, has reduced the logical error rate to the level of 10^-6, demonstrating superiority in executing practical quantum algorithms.
China’s pursuit in quantum computing is also noteworthy. Beijing-based Baidu announced in September 2025 that its self-developed ‘Jingyuan’ quantum computer achieved a computation speed 1,000 times faster than existing supercomputers in solving complex optimization problems. The ‘Jiuzhang’ series developed by Professor Pan Jianwei’s team at the University of Science and Technology of China, under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, demonstrated world-class performance in photonic-based quantum computing, surpassing Google’s ‘Sycamore’ in specific computational problems. This rapid technological advancement in China is exerting considerable pressure on the quantum computing industries in the US and Europe.
Diversification of Technological Approaches and Competitive Landscape
An intriguing aspect of the quantum computing field is that different physical implementation methods are competing with their respective advantages and disadvantages. In addition to IBM and Google, which have chosen the superconducting qubit method, IonQ, based in Innsbruck, Austria, achieved 32 algorithmic qubits in the first half of 2025, securing a unique position in the commercial quantum computing service market. IonQ’s approach, although having a relatively small number of qubits, provides high fidelity and long coherence time, showing excellent performance in specific algorithms. The company’s third-quarter revenue in 2025 increased by 89% year-over-year to $12.4 million, indicating the commercialization of quantum computing is in full swing.
Meanwhile, Atom Computing, a startup in Berkeley, California, is showing innovative achievements in neutral atom-based quantum computing. Their system, announced in August 2025, implements 1,180 neutral atom qubits, highlighting advantages in room-temperature operation and scalability compared to existing superconducting methods. Atom Computing has begun offering its technology on the Azure Quantum cloud platform through a partnership with Microsoft, marking an important milestone in expanding quantum computing accessibility. According to data released from Microsoft’s headquarters in Redmond, Washington, the Azure Quantum platform surpassed 150,000 monthly active users in 2025, a 340% increase from the previous year.
In the European market, QuTech, based in Delft, Netherlands, and IQM in Munich, Germany, are gaining attention. IQM secured an additional €20 million investment from the Finnish government in the first half of 2025, successfully commercializing a 20-qubit system. IQM’s approach, particularly noted for its strategy to secure scalability and maintainability through modular quantum processor design, is drawing attention. The €1 billion investment under the European Union’s ‘Quantum Flagship’ program is currently in the mid-term evaluation stage in 2025, with initial results exceeding expectations, increasing the likelihood of additional budget acquisition from 2026.
Korea’s quantum computing ecosystem is also rapidly growing. Samsung Electronics announced in early 2025 that it has officially entered quantum processor manufacturing through its foundry division. The superconducting qubit manufacturing using Samsung’s 3-nanometer process technology achieved a 20% improvement in coherence time compared to existing methods, establishing a foundation for its status as a major supplier to global quantum computing companies. SK Telecom commercialized its self-developed quantum key distribution (QKD) network between Seoul and Busan in June 2025, evaluated as the largest quantum security network in Asia. The network construction cost a total of 45 billion won, achieving a quantum key distribution speed of 1 Mbps.
Expansion of Practical Applications and Market Opportunities
The commercial value of quantum computing is no longer confined to theoretical possibilities. The financial services sector is showing the most concrete results, with JP Morgan Chase in New York beginning a pilot operation of a portfolio optimization system using IBM’s quantum computer in the second half of 2025. This system processes the optimization of risk-adjusted returns in complex portfolios containing more than 1,000 financial products 15 times faster than existing supercomputers. JP Morgan’s initial test results showed that portfolios utilizing quantum algorithms achieved an annual risk-adjusted return 0.8 percentage points higher than traditional methodologies, implying an additional $8 billion in annual revenue potential for JP Morgan, which manages $1 trillion in assets.
The practical value of quantum computing is also being demonstrated in the pharmaceutical industry. Roche in Basel, Switzerland, announced that it reduced the molecular simulation time in the development process of Alzheimer’s treatment using Google’s quantum computing technology from six months to three weeks. This dramatically improved the efficiency of candidate substance screening in the early stages of new drug development, allowing Roche to save 15% on R&D costs in 2025. Bayer in Germany is also beginning to apply quantum computing to pesticide development through collaboration with IBM, achieving a computation speed 100 times faster than existing methodologies in analyzing complex chemical reaction pathways.
In the logistics optimization field, DHL in Hamburg, Germany, is showing notable achievements. Since the first half of 2025, DHL has been fully operating a delivery route optimization service across Europe using D-Wave’s quantum annealing system. This service, utilizing D-Wave’s 5,000-qubit ‘Advantage’ system based in Vancouver, Canada, achieved an average 12% reduction in fuel consumption in optimal route calculations considering 25,000 delivery points in Europe. Given that DHL’s annual fuel cost is approximately €4.5 billion, this translates to an annual cost-saving effect of €540 million.
The automotive industry is also accelerating the use of quantum computing. Volkswagen in Wolfsburg, Germany, expanded its partnership with Google in September 2025 to fully apply quantum computing to traffic flow optimization and battery material development. In Volkswagen’s initial tests, quantum algorithms proposed 20% more efficient traffic flow in traffic simulations in Lisbon and Beijing compared to existing methodologies, resulting in an average reduction of 8 minutes in city-wide average travel time. Additionally, in lithium-ion movement path simulation for electric vehicle batteries, quantum computing was used to discover a new electrode structure that could enhance battery capacity by 15%.
However, there are still challenges to be addressed in the commercialization process of quantum computing. The biggest barrier remains the high error rates and short coherence times. Even the most advanced quantum computers currently have a logical error rate of around 10^-3, requiring significant technological advancements to reach the 10^-12 level needed for practical quantum algorithm execution. Additionally, the cost of maintaining the cryogenic environment required for quantum computer operation remains high. The annual operating cost of IBM’s latest quantum computer system is about $15 million, with cooling system operating costs accounting for 40%. These high operating costs are a major factor constraining the economic viability of quantum computing.
The shortage of talent is also a serious issue. According to McKinsey’s 2025 report, there are only about 25,000 quantum computing professionals worldwide, but the demand for personnel due to market growth is expected to reach 150,000 by 2030. This implies an average annual personnel increase of 43%, which is difficult to meet with the current education system. The shortage of experts in quantum algorithm development and quantum-classical hybrid system design is particularly severe, delaying the adoption of quantum computing by companies.
From an investment perspective, the quantum computing field is still classified as a high-risk, high-reward area. As of 2025, the total investment attracted by global quantum computing startups amounts to $7.3 billion, but a significant portion of this has yet to be monetized. According to an analysis by venture capital firm Bessemer Venture Partners, the average investment recovery period for quantum computing startups is 12-15 years, significantly longer than the 7-10 years for typical IT startups. However, the return on investment upon success is expected to be 50-100 times, maintaining the interest of long-term investors.
Looking ahead, 2026-2027 is expected to be a crucial turning point for the commercialization of quantum computing. IBM aims to build a 10,000-qubit system by 2027, and Google has announced plans to improve the logical error rate to the level of 10^-9 by the same period. The Chinese government has announced a total investment of $15 billion in the quantum computing field by 2030, which is expected to further intensify the global quantum computing competition. The Korean government is also embarking on building a quantum computing ecosystem with a 2 trillion won investment over the next five years through the ‘K-Quantum Computing 2030’ plan, drawing attention to the potential shift in Korea’s status in global competition.
In conclusion, as of 2025, the quantum computing market is at a critical point where technological maturity and commercial practicality are finding a balance. While there are still technical challenges to be addressed, clear business value is already being created in specific application areas. Within the next 2-3 years, quantum computing is likely to move beyond niche markets to become a pillar of mainstream computing technology, opening a new dimension in the global technological hegemony competition. For companies and investors, it is a crucial time to establish appropriate positioning and investment strategies during this technological transition.
*This analysis is based on publicly available data and industry reports, and additional due diligence and expert consultation are recommended for investment decisions.*
