The Race for Quantum Computing Commercialization Accelerates: A New Front in the 2025 Tech Supremacy Battle
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A Turning Point in the Quantum Computing Market: The First Year of Commercialization in 2025
The quantum computing industry is transitioning from the experimental phase to the commercialization phase, starting in 2025. The global quantum computing market is expected to grow from $1.3 billion in 2024 to $1.9 billion in 2025, marking a 46% increase, with an explosive average annual growth rate of 32.1% projected until 2030. Notably, in the latter half of this year, IBM in New York and Google in Mountain View, California, have each unveiled a 1000-qubit quantum processor and practical quantum algorithms, respectively, breaking through technical thresholds.
IBM’s latest quantum processor, “Condor,” features 1,121 qubits, achieving a 2.6-fold performance improvement over the previous 433-qubit “Osprey.” A particularly noteworthy advancement is the revolutionary improvement in quantum error correction technology, reducing the logical error rate from 10^-3 to 10^-6, a 1000-fold decrease. This breakthrough is seen as overcoming a key technological barrier for practical quantum computing applications. IBM has announced plans to launch a 4000-qubit system by the end of 2025, investing $2.2 billion in research and development this year alone.
Alphabet, Google’s parent company, has also announced innovative achievements in quantum computing. Google’s Quantum AI Lab revealed that their “Willow” chip achieved processing speeds 10^24 times faster than the world’s most powerful supercomputers for specific calculations. This signifies a transition from quantum supremacy to quantum utility. Google plans to invest $1.8 billion in its quantum computing division by 2025, aiming to launch a commercial quantum cloud service in the first half of 2026.
Global Companies Competing in Quantum Computing Investments
Microsoft in Redmond, Washington, is focusing on topological qubit technology, adopting a differentiated approach. Microsoft’s Azure Quantum cloud platform currently provides quantum computing services to over 120 companies and research institutions across 13 countries, with third-quarter 2025 revenue reaching $230 million, a 340% increase from the same period last year. It is particularly noted for creating tangible results in risk modeling in the financial sector and drug development in the pharmaceutical industry.
Intel in Santa Clara, California, is leveraging its semiconductor manufacturing expertise to focus on developing silicon spin qubits. Intel’s “Horse Ridge” cryogenic control chip has achieved a 70% reduction in the operating costs of quantum computers. Intel has set a revenue target of $500 million for quantum computing in 2025, an increase of 180% from the previous year. Additionally, they are constructing a $1 billion quantum manufacturing facility at their Hillsboro, Oregon research lab.
South Korea’s Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are also actively building a quantum computing ecosystem. Samsung Electronics in Suwon, Gyeonggi Province, announced an investment of 800 billion won in 2025 for the development of quantum dot-based qubit manufacturing technology. Samsung Advanced Institute of Technology successfully extended the coherence time of quantum memory devices to 100 microseconds this year, which is considered a key technological breakthrough for implementing commercial quantum computers. SK Hynix has also established a special memory development center for quantum computing in Icheon, Gyeonggi Province, planning to invest 300 billion won by 2026.
In the Asian market, China and Japan are also making significant moves. Alibaba Cloud in China has established a quantum computing research lab in Beijing and announced the successful development of a 72-qubit quantum processor. In Japan, NTT and RIKEN are jointly developing optical quantum computing technology, aiming to commercialize a 216-qubit optical quantum system by 2025.
As real-world industrial applications become more concrete, the commercial value of quantum computing is being validated. Germany’s Volkswagen collaborated with IBM to apply quantum computing to traffic optimization, achieving a 23% reduction in average travel time by optimizing the routes of 10,000 taxis in Beijing. Switzerland’s Roche announced that it used Google’s quantum computing technology to reduce the time required for Alzheimer’s drug candidate exploration from 18 months to 4 months.
In the financial services sector, the adoption of quantum computing is accelerating. JP Morgan Chase has partnered with Microsoft to apply quantum algorithms to portfolio optimization and risk analysis. Initial test results showed a 95% reduction in computation time compared to traditional Monte Carlo simulations, with a 15% improvement in accuracy. Goldman Sachs is also forming its own quantum computing team and pursuing the application of quantum algorithms in option pricing models.
In the logistics and supply chain optimization field, tangible results are emerging. Germany’s DHL has collaborated with D-Wave to introduce quantum annealing technology for optimizing its global delivery network, reducing route planning time by 80% and fuel costs by 12%. Amazon is also working on optimizing warehouse robot paths and inventory management efficiency through its own quantum computing service, “Braket.”
In the field of cybersecurity, quantum encryption technology is gaining attention. China’s Tencent has commercialized an absolutely secure communication service over a 2000km Beijing-Shanghai quantum key distribution (QKD) network. In Europe, Switzerland’s ID Quantique is providing quantum encryption communication services to Geneva bankers, with demand surging despite monthly fees being 40% higher than traditional encryption services.
However, there are several technical and economic challenges in the commercialization of quantum computing. The biggest issue is the instability of quantum states and high error rates. The current error rate of physical qubits is between 0.1-1%, and it needs to be reduced to below 0.0001% for practical quantum computing. Quantum error correction technology, which involves constructing one logical qubit from thousands of physical qubits, is necessary, but it significantly increases system complexity and costs.
Operating costs are also a major hurdle for commercialization. Quantum computers must operate in near absolute zero cryogenic environments, with the operating costs of dilution refrigerators alone reaching $1 million annually. In IBM’s case, the total ownership cost of a 1000-qubit quantum system is estimated at $15 million, which is 3-4 times higher than supercomputers of equivalent performance. Therefore, most companies prefer cloud services over direct purchases.
The shortage of skilled personnel is also a serious issue. The global quantum computing workforce is currently around 7,000, which is absolutely insufficient compared to market demand. A fusion of knowledge in quantum physics, computer science, and electronics is required, and the annual salary for PhD-level personnel in Silicon Valley ranges from $250,000 to $400,000, leading to intense competition for talent.
Government policies and regulatory environments also significantly impact the development of the quantum computing industry. The United States confirmed a federal investment of $2.4 billion over five years through the Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act in 2022, while China designated quantum technology as a key strategic industry in its 14th Five-Year Plan, announcing a $15 billion investment. The European Union is investing €1 billion through the “Quantum Flagship” program, and the South Korean government plans to invest 400 billion won by 2030 through the K-Quantum Initiative.
Interest in quantum computing startups is also surging in the investment market. In the first half of 2025, global quantum computing startup investments reached $3.4 billion, an 89% increase from the same period last year. Notably, Canada’s Xanadu raised $400 million in a Series C round, and the UK’s Oxford Quantum Computing secured $230 million in a Series B round. In South Korea, a quantum computing startup founded by researchers from the Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science attracted a 30 billion won investment, indicating an active ecosystem.
Future Prospects and Investment Opportunities
The future of the quantum computing industry is expected to follow a phased development path. The period from 2025 to 2027 will be the NISQ (Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum) era, where systems with 50-1000 qubits will provide practical value in solving specific problems. From 2028 to 2030, quantum computers based on logical qubits with error correction are expected to emerge, ushering in an era of universal quantum computing. McKinsey estimates that the economic value of quantum computing will reach $130 billion by 2030 and $850 billion by 2040.
By industry, the market is expected to form in the order of pharmaceuticals/chemicals (35%), financial services (25%), logistics/optimization (20%), cybersecurity (15%), and others (5%). In particular, in the field of drug development, quantum computing is expected to reduce the current 15-year drug development period to 5-7 years through molecular simulation. This is expected to bring revolutionary changes to the $1 trillion global pharmaceutical market.
From a geopolitical perspective, quantum computing is becoming a key area in the new technology supremacy competition. The United States and China are fiercely competing in quantum technology development and talent acquisition, while Europe and Japan are also building their own quantum ecosystems. South Korea has the opportunity to secure competitiveness in the quantum hardware field based on the semiconductor technology of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
For investors, quantum computing is expected to offer attractive long-term investment opportunities. However, given the uncertainty of the technology and the difficulty in predicting commercialization timelines, a portfolio approach is advisable. Diversified investments in hardware manufacturers, software developers, cloud service providers, and end-user companies utilizing quantum technology will be a strategy to capture growth opportunities while minimizing risks.
*This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice or a solicitation. Investment decisions should be made based on individual judgment and responsibility.*
