Turning Point in the Quantum Computing Market: The Race for Commercialization and Technological Breakthroughs by 2025
Editor
Acceleration of the Technological Race Towards Quantum Supremacy
The quantum computing industry is reaching a historic turning point in 2025, transitioning from the experimental phase to the early stages of commercialization. Google’s Willow quantum processor, unveiled last November at its California headquarters, demonstrated groundbreaking advancements in quantum error correction, completing calculations in five minutes that would take existing supercomputers 10^25 years. This achievement is seen not just as a technical feat but as a signal of the practical potential of quantum computing. IBM, headquartered in New York, also announced its 1,121-qubit Condor processor last October, maintaining its lead in hardware scalability with a goal to build a 5,000-qubit system by the end of 2025.
The current quantum computing market is estimated to be around $1.8 billion in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 32.1%, projected to expand to $12.5 billion by 2030. This rapid growth is supported by substantial investments from major tech companies and strategic government support. The United States is investing $1.2 billion over five years starting in 2022 through the National Quantum Initiative, while China is actively participating in the technological supremacy race by constructing a $15 billion quantum research center. The European Union is also investing €1 billion through the Quantum Flagship program to build a quantum technology ecosystem.
From a technological perspective, 2025 is expected to mark the transition from the NISQ (Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum) era to fault-tolerant quantum computing. Google’s Willow processor has achieved ‘below-threshold’ error correction, where logical error rates decrease as the number of physical qubits increases, meeting a key requirement for scalable quantum computers. IBM is pursuing scalability through a different approach with modular architecture, developing quantum networking technology to connect multiple quantum processors into larger systems.
In the commercialization race, cloud-based quantum computing services are emerging as a key strategy. IBM’s Quantum Network currently involves over 200 institutions worldwide, processing over 100 million quantum circuit executions monthly as of 2024. Amazon’s Braket service, based in Washington, has partnered with various hardware providers like IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave to offer customers choices, reporting a 150% increase in service usage in 2024 compared to the previous year. Microsoft, also based in Washington, is focusing on software stacks and development tools through its Azure Quantum platform, aiming to build a quantum algorithm development ecosystem.
Materialization of Practical Applications and Industry Impact
One of the leading fields where the practical application of quantum computing is materializing by 2025 is the financial services industry. JPMorgan Chase, headquartered in New York, is conducting research with IBM to apply quantum algorithms to portfolio optimization and risk analysis, reporting a 100-fold improvement in calculation speed compared to traditional Monte Carlo simulations. Goldman Sachs, also based in New York, is utilizing quantum computing for option pricing models to accurately value complex derivatives, planning a pilot application in actual trading by the first half of 2025. This adoption in the financial sector is estimated to generate an annual demand of $1.5 billion in the quantum computing market.
The pharmaceutical and life sciences sectors are also seeing visible applications of quantum computing. Roche, headquartered in Switzerland, is collaborating with Cambridge Quantum Computing to apply quantum simulations in Alzheimer’s drug development, achieving 10,000 times faster calculation performance in molecular interaction modeling compared to existing methods. BioNTech, based in Germany, has improved protein folding prediction accuracy from 85% to 94% using quantum computing in mRNA vaccine design. These applications are expected to shorten drug development periods by an average of 3-5 years, potentially resulting in $50 billion in annual cost savings in the pharmaceutical industry.
The encryption and cybersecurity sectors are among the most directly impacted by quantum computing, with the transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography becoming more pronounced by 2025. Based on the quantum-resistant encryption standards announced by the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in August 2024, major companies are replacing existing RSA and ECC encryption systems. Google has begun applying quantum-resistant encryption to its Chrome browser, and Amazon plans to transition all encryption services offered by AWS to quantum-resistant standards by 2026. This transition is expected to expand the global cybersecurity market from $280 billion in 2025 to $450 billion by 2030.
In logistics and optimization, the practical value of quantum computing is being demonstrated. Volkswagen, headquartered in Germany, implemented real-time route optimization for 418 taxis in Beijing using D-Wave systems, achieving a 20% reduction in average travel time. Airbus, based in France, applied quantum annealing to optimize aircraft component placement, improving fuel efficiency by 3.2%, equivalent to an annual savings of $1.5 billion in airfare costs. These optimization applications are experiencing the fastest growth in the quantum computing market by 2025, with an annual growth rate of 45%.
In South Korea, the development and commercialization of quantum computing technology are also accelerating. Samsung Electronics, headquartered in Gyeonggi Province, announced a 1 trillion won investment plan in December 2024 for developing quantum computing-specific semiconductors, aiming for commercial quantum processor production by 2027. SK Telecom, based in Seoul, has partnered with ID Quantique to build a quantum encryption communication network, planning to complete a quantum key distribution network between Seoul and Busan by the first half of 2025. The Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST) has established a joint quantum computing research center with IBM and is operating educational programs to train domestic quantum algorithm experts.
In quantum computing hardware technology, competition among various approaches is intensifying. In addition to IBM and Google, which lead in superconducting qubit methods, IonQ, based in Maryland, started the commercial deployment of a 32-qubit system in Q4 2024, achieving a gate fidelity of 99.8%. QuEra, based in Massachusetts, demonstrated excellent performance in combinatorial optimization problems with its 256-qubit system using neutral atom methods, announcing the release of a 1,000-qubit system in 2025. Xanadu, based in Canada, achieved innovative results in quantum machine learning applications with its 216-qubit X-Series processor using photonic qubit methods.
Investment Trends and Market Outlook
Venture investment in the quantum computing sector is projected to increase by 85% year-on-year to $2.4 billion in 2025, reflecting growing investor confidence in the potential for commercialization. Investments in quantum software and algorithm development companies are surging, accounting for 40% of total quantum investments. Classiq, based in Israel, raised $51 million in a Series B round, accelerating the commercialization of its quantum software design platform. Pasqal, based in France, secured €100 million, the largest investment in Europe, to accelerate the development of neutral atom quantum computing technology.
Strategic investments at the corporate level are also actively taking place. Honda, based in Japan, signed a $300 million cooperation agreement with IBM over five years to research battery materials using quantum computing, aiming to improve electric vehicle battery performance. Boeing, headquartered in Chicago, invested a total of $200 million in quantum computing startups for aircraft design optimization, pursuing the commercialization of quantum-based aircraft design tools by 2027. These strategic investments by large corporations are acting as a key driver in accelerating the practical application of quantum computing technology.
Government support is also continuously expanding. Japan announced a $5 billion investment over ten years through the Quantum Moonshot Program in 2024, aiming to secure global competitiveness in quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum sensing. Germany is investing €2 billion to establish a quantum computing network, strengthening its position as a European quantum technology hub. The South Korean government is also promoting quantum technology self-reliance through the K-Quantum Initiative, investing 2 trillion won over five years starting in 2025, supporting the development of quantum chips by semiconductor companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
However, significant technical and economic challenges remain in the commercialization process of quantum computing. Currently, most quantum computers need to operate in extremely low-temperature environments below absolute zero at 0.01K, with dilution refrigerator systems costing over $1 million each. The error rates due to the instability of quantum states remain high, requiring error rates 1,000 times lower than current levels for practical applications. Additionally, the shortage of specialized personnel for quantum programming is a critical issue, with only about 5,000 quantum computing experts estimated worldwide.
Despite these challenges, 2025 is expected to be recorded as the year when quantum computing begins to be applied in real industrial settings beyond laboratories. Particularly, cases demonstrating quantum supremacy in optimization, simulation, and machine learning are continuously increasing, signaling explosive growth in the quantum computing market over the next decade. Industry experts predict that quantum computing will generate $850 billion in annual economic value by 2030, equivalent to 20% of the current global IT market. For investors, this is a time that requires a cautious approach, considering both technological risks and innovative growth potential.
