The Turning Point of the Quantum Computing Industry in 2025: Entering the Commercialization Phase and Global Supremacy Competition
Editor
The quantum computing industry is reaching a historic turning point in 2025. In October, IBM’s New York headquarters announced the launch of commercial services for its 1,121-qubit ‘Condor’ processor. Following this, Google’s California headquarters announced in early December that its new quantum chip ‘Willow’ completed calculations in 5 minutes that would take 10^25 years on a conventional supercomputer, reaffirming its achievement of Quantum Supremacy. With these technological breakthroughs, the global quantum computing market is projected to grow from $1.3 billion in 2024 to $5 billion by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 25%. Governments and companies worldwide are fiercely competing to secure dominance in the next-generation computing paradigm.
In particular, according to the ‘Quantum Science and Technology Development Strategy’ announced by the South Korean government in August, a budget of 1 trillion won will be invested over the next decade with the goal of developing a 1,000-qubit quantum computer by 2035. This is seen as a strategic response to the U.S.’s National Quantum Initiative (NQI) with a $1.2 billion investment and China’s $15 billion quantum investment plan. The Quantum Computing Research Center, jointly operated by KAIST and Seoul National University, has successfully developed a 20-qubit superconducting quantum processor and aims to achieve 100 qubits by 2026.
In the industry, Samsung Electronics is taking the most proactive steps. Samsung Electronics, headquartered in Suwon, Gyeonggi Province, signed an agreement in September to establish a joint quantum computing research center with the University of Chicago in the U.S., and has formalized its entry into the quantum chip manufacturing business using its 7nm and 5nm foundry technology. Samsung’s foundry division plans to start contract manufacturing of quantum chips for IBM and Google from the third quarter of 2025, expecting to generate $500 million in new annual revenue.
The core of quantum computing technology lies in the quantum information unit called a qubit. Unlike classical computer bits, which can only have values of 0 or 1, qubits can represent both 0 and 1 simultaneously due to the superposition principle of quantum mechanics, exponentially increasing parallel computation capabilities. For instance, a 300-qubit quantum computer can process 2^300 states simultaneously, more than the number of atoms in the universe. However, qubits are extremely unstable and only operate in ultra-cold environments at absolute zero 0.01K (-273.14°C), with high error rates due to external interference, posing significant challenges to practical application.
To overcome these technical limitations, major companies are adopting different approaches. IBM has chosen superconducting qubits, focusing on stability, and announced success in implementing logical qubits through quantum error correction technology. Meanwhile, Google is investing in both superconducting and photonic (photon-based) quantum computing research, exploring the potential for developing quantum computers that operate at room temperature. Microsoft is attempting to develop fundamentally error-resistant quantum computers through an innovative approach called topological qubits.
National Quantum Computing Strategies and Competitive Landscape
The United States maintains a technological edge in the quantum computing field. IBM, after announcing its 1,121-qubit Condor processor in 2023, presented a roadmap for a 5,000-qubit Flamingo in 2024. Google is also leading research on the convergence of machine learning and quantum computing through its Quantum AI lab, with its recently announced Willow chip being praised for breakthroughs in quantum error correction. Amazon provides cloud-based quantum computing accessibility through its AWS Braket service, supporting access to over 30 quantum computers worldwide as of 2024.
China is rapidly catching up through large-scale state-led investments. The University of Science and Technology of China developed a 66-qubit photonic quantum computer ‘Jiuzhang’ in 2021 and announced the development of a 127-qubit superconducting quantum processor in 2024. The Chinese government has announced plans to invest $15 billion in the quantum information field from 2025 to 2035, showing practical achievements particularly in quantum communication and quantum cryptography. The Beijing-Shanghai 2,000 km quantum communication network is already providing commercial services, leading in the secure communication field ahead of the U.S.
In Japan, major companies like Toyota, NTT, and Fujitsu are focusing on the practical application of quantum computing. NTT, in particular, is concentrating on developing photonic-based quantum computing technology and unveiled a 32-qubit photonic quantum computer prototype in the first half of 2024. The Japanese government, through its ‘Quantum Moonshot Program’ announced in 2023, is supporting the development of practical quantum computers with a $5 billion investment over ten years, focusing on applications in materials science and drug development.
The European Union is investing €1 billion through the Quantum Flagship program, which began in 2018. Germany’s IQM has launched a 20-qubit commercial quantum computer, and this Helsinki-based company is one of the most notable quantum computing startups in Europe. The Netherlands’ QuTech is developing silicon-based spin qubit technology and is pursuing the commercialization of semiconductor-based quantum computing in collaboration with Samsung Electronics.
Commercialization Prospects and Industry Ecosystem Changes
The practical application of quantum computing is expected to occur gradually, starting with specific fields. The fields most anticipated for early commercialization are cryptography and secure communication. The RSA encryption, which currently underpins internet security, would take billions of years to decrypt a 4,096-bit key with conventional computers, but a 4,000-qubit quantum computer could do it in a few hours. Consequently, the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) announced quantum-resistant encryption standards in August 2024, and major IT companies are developing quantum-safe security solutions.
In the financial sector, quantum computing is actively applied to portfolio optimization and risk analysis. JPMorgan Chase, in collaboration with IBM, developed an option pricing model using quantum algorithms, achieving computation speeds 1,000 times faster than traditional Monte Carlo simulations. Goldman Sachs announced plans to pilot quantum computing-based derivative pricing services starting in 2025.
In drug development, the accuracy and speed of molecular simulations are expected to improve dramatically. Roche, headquartered in Basel, Switzerland, is conducting a joint project with Google to discover new drug candidates using quantum computing, projecting a reduction in the drug development period from the current 10-15 years to 5-7 years. South Korea’s Celltrion and Samsung Biologics are also reportedly considering the adoption of quantum computing-based biosimulation.
The application of quantum computing in artificial intelligence and machine learning is also gaining attention. Quantum machine learning (QML) algorithms can drastically reduce the training time of existing deep learning models, showing potential to enhance both the complexity and performance of AI models. NVIDIA launched the ‘CUDA-Q’ quantum-classical hybrid computing platform in the second half of 2024, providing solutions integrating quantum computing with GPU-accelerated computing.
Quantum computing’s superiority is also proven in logistics and optimization problem-solving. Volkswagen has been using quantum computing to optimize traffic flow since 2019, achieving a 20% reduction in traffic congestion in pilot tests conducted in Lisbon and Beijing. Amazon announced a 15% improvement in logistics efficiency by applying quantum algorithms to optimize warehouse robot paths.
However, there are still significant technical and economic barriers to the full commercialization of quantum computing. The cost of dilution refrigerators necessary for operating quantum computers currently amounts to millions of dollars, and power consumption is over 1,000 times higher than conventional computers. Additionally, implementing logical qubits requires thousands of physical qubits, necessitating systems with millions of qubits for practical quantum computer implementation, according to experts.
Despite these challenges, the growth of the quantum computing industry is expected to continue. McKinsey Consulting predicts that quantum computing will create $850 billion in value for the global economy by 2035, with the most significant innovations occurring in chemistry, materials science, finance, and cryptography. If South Korean government and companies continue their active investment and R&D, they are expected to secure a meaningful position in the global quantum computing competition. In particular, Samsung Electronics’ foundry technology and SK Telecom’s experience in building quantum cryptography communication infrastructure are evaluated as foundations for South Korea to secure a unique competitive advantage in the quantum computing ecosystem.
This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice or solicitation. Investment decisions should be made based on individual judgment and responsibility.
